Mathematical calculation of sports betting

Mathematical calculation of sports betting is a way to determine the size of a bet and a favorite by using special formulas. The use of mathematics in sports betting significantly increases the probability of winning. There are a number of formulas used by professional players. Each of them is designed for a specific task.

How is the bookmaker’s margin calculated
Margin bookmaker is determined in order to find out how promising to work with him. The higher the margin, the less likely it is that working with an office will make money by betting on sports.

Consider the method of calculating the margin can be based on a football match. Official bookmakers put up three coefficients with different values. To determine the margin, you must follow the following scheme;

divide each unit by one coefficient;
add up all three results;
subtract one from the given number.
The final number will show what percentage the bookmaker charges. For example, if the result is 0.09, then the bookmaker takes 9% of the profits. In such an office, it is not recommended to place bets on sports online, since the probability of obtaining large profits in it is minimal. The optimal value should be no more than 0.05, or 5%.

Determination of the expected result
Before you bet on the sport, you must determine its feasibility. To do this, the expected result is calculated based on the following formula:

S = K x Z
By K is meant the average value of the coefficients set by the bookmaker. Under Z indicates the percentage of bets in which the player won. The result of multiplying these values ​​indicates whether it is worth making this bet in this size. If the result is greater than one, the ability to make a profit is high. If less – more likely to lose.

Also, the likely outcome can be determined by the coefficients set by the bookmaker office. Each coefficient corresponds to the possible outcome of a sports game. Often three factors are used, indicating:

draw;
home win;
victory guests.
For each coefficient you need to divide the unit, and multiply the resulting value by 100. The result is a two-digit number. This value is the percentage probability of the bookmaker for each outcome. The highest number indicates the most likely outcome of the game, according to the bookmaker. But it is recommended to bet only if one of the results exceeds 50%. If there is none, the bookmaker is not confident in the calculations.

Сумма ставки

Выигрышная сумма ставки на спорт в букмекерской конторе определяется при помощи математической вероятности. Для этого существует специальная формула, позволяющая вычислить, принесет ли прибыль поставленная сумма, или же убыток. Расчеты проводятся по следующей схеме:

  • сумма ставки умножается на коэффициент ставки;
  • от полученного результата отнимается сумма ставки, после чего он умножается на среднее число побед в процентах;
  • от данного значения отнимается число, полученное от умножения суммы ставки на количество поражений в процентах.

Результат расчетов покажет, стоит ли ставить выбранную сумму, или же необходимо ее изменить. Если результат выше нуля, сумму можно ставить. Если ниже — размер ставки следует пересмотреть. Чем выше полученное число, тем больше вероятность на победу.

It should be borne in mind that the sites of bookmakers have experienced specialists who carry out calculations. But even they make mistakes, so the formula is never 100% true.

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